The inconsistent unpredictable Championship

The Nobel Prize winning Danish physicist Niels Bohr famously stated “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future”. I cannot better that, but would like to add that it is made that little more difficult by inconsistency in the elements that you are basing that prediction on.

Sportingo writer Donna Gee was a little hard on herself in claiming that she had been foolish with her assertion that the Championship was the most competitive league in Europe (shortly before seeing Newcastle and West Bromwich Albion begin to run away with things at the top, much in the manner of the boring Chelsea and Manchester United domination of the Premiership).

With her beloved Cardiff beating West Brom at the the Hawthorns yesterday (shortly after a run of one point in four matches had ended), they are back up to third just three days after she was bemoaning them dropping out of the play-off positions. Meanwhile, Leicester, who had suffered only one defeat in ten games to see them enter December in third place, lost two on the trot to immediate rivals, conceding eight goals in the process and dropping to seventh.

It seems clear that the best prediction concerning the play-off positions of the Championship (at this stage at least) is that it will remain unpredictable. Indeed, the only element at the top of the table with a degree of consistency is Newcastle´s home record. They are not too poor away, either, and I would not be surprised to see them dominate this league the same way Wigan and Reading did when they were Champions.

Although West Brom are a good footballing side, three defeats at home already this season indicates that they are not going to maintain a steady challenge to the Magpies. They might well end up second, but I reckon there will be fewer points between them and third than there are between them and Newcastle.

Hmmm, this prediction lark is fun, isn´t it?

For further unpredictability, however, look no further than Middlesborough, who thrashed QPR 5-1 at Loftus Road on Saturday only to lose at home 3-0 to Blackpool days later, with the Tangerines just getting over their first home defeat of the season, and this by mid-table Barnsley.

QPR, like Leicester, also conceded eight goals in two defeats and have dropped to twelfth from fifth. So now Swansea and Nottingham Forest, who each took a mediocre four points from the last six, seem to be on the front foot, while a meagre one win in three matches has taken Blackpool back into the play-off places.

The pattern of unpredictability in the bigger picture can be broken down. Just about any team who goes on a good run of four or five games (let´s say winning ten or twelve points from them) will likely have a place in the play-off positions at the end of it.

Even Watford, who have consistently lost one match for each win since the end of September, briefly found themselves in a giddy sixth position after beating QPR 3-1 on Monday night. When your average point rate is less than one and a half per game (as the Hornets´ is since back to back wins in early September), you should not really find yourself moving upwards in the league.

Not, unless, this is indeed a competitive league where most teams have the potential to beat each other, precluding consistency and defying prediction.

Look at Reading, who appear to be withering away hopelessly in nineteenth position in the league until you realise that there are as many points (eleven) between them and sixth place as there are between sixth and top of the table. It may not seem any comfort for them at the moment, but that gap is bridgable, though whether Brendan Rogers is the man to provide the results to span it is another question.

I think Newcastle will take this league at a canter but as for the positions immediately below them, I think it is fair to assume that there will be lots more comings and goings yet. And if I am wrong? Donna, I hope you will stick up for me.

As Good As It Gets?

Another month has passed in the Hornets´ season and I have heard nothing from the younger Watford Boy about his views on how our season is shaping up: we lost 5-0 at West Brom in early November but followed that up with two home wins, against Preston (2-0) and Scunthorpe (3-0). Loanee Heidar Helguson got three of those goals, Danny Graham and Tom Cleverley one a piece. The two home wins were followed on successive Saturdays by defeats at Crystal Palace (3-0) and Newcastle (2-0) before victory at home to billionaires QPR tonight, 3-1 – with Lloyd Doyley scoring his first professional goal – took us into the play-off places (albeit for no more than 24 hours).

That, I believe, is probably going to be the highlight of our season. It is true that the Championship is looking very much like a two-horse race at the moment and Newcastle and West Brom will likely end up in the 90 to 100 point zone, while the other four places look increasingly open as teams stutter, start and stop again. Although we seem, in theory, to have as much hope as Leicester, Nottingham Forest, QPR, Swansea or Blackpool of a top six position, (Cardiff and Middlesborough may be inconsistent but have more in reserve), I am just happy that relegation this season now looks highly unlikely and will not be complaining about a mid-table position come May.

It is not that our present position is undeserved, or merely the fact that Watford are the only team in the top half of the division to have a negative goal difference. It is not simply that we have been thoroughly outclassed by other teams in the running like Cardiff and West Brom. It is more to do with the fear that we have a thin squad already and it will probably only get thinner come January. Apparently we are playing some of our best football ever (let´s hope Hoofroyd´s tactics are gone forever) and with a Chelsea 3^rd round FA Cup tie on the horizon and Luton languishing in the Conference, Watford fans should enjoy what we have. Keep the expectations low and we cannot be disappointed. And Malkay, I owe you an apology for doubting your managerial abilities.

Hello Newcastle, goodbye Burnley.

In the course of researching an answer to a comment on one of my Sportingo pieces, I was surprised to see just how much Newcastle spend in comparison with other Premiership teams. They have the fifth highest wage-bill and have spent ridiculous amounts in the transfer market over the past 10 years. It is slightly gratifiying then to see that this has not bought them success. They are relegated with Middlesbrough and West Bromwich Albion from the Premiership and will be visitors at Vicarage Road next season. Thus my prediction that last year´s play-off winners would go straight back down again was proved wrong as Hull lost at home but finished in just-safe 17^th. Wolves and Birmingham won automatic promotion and Burnley won the play-off final against Sheffield United, preventing the latter “righting” that perceived Tevez-related wrong.

A point won

West Bromwich Albion v Watford

Saturday 12^th April

Jun, Joss and I visited the Birmingham Museum and Art Gallery and took in some Rodin and Canaletto to use up the extra hours we had arriving for a 3 o’clock kick off when Sky had obliged a 5.20 start. We ate and watched a little rugby in a Wetherspoons and then left Jun in the town centre to catch a tram from Snow Hill. A few other Watford boys were on the platform but I talked to a Baggies fan as we disembarked at the Hawthorns.

The start could not have been better: six minutes in and we were a goal to the good but as there was no stadium announcement it wasn’t until after the game that we discovered it was Leigh Bromby who’d poached his first Hornets goal following a corner. The team sat back somewhat after that and Jordan Stewart, Lloyd Doyley and Danny Shittu all made vital contributions to keeping us ahead at the break, which afforded the fans their first opportunity to sit. However, the home team levelled soon after half-time. One WBA free kick had gone over and another hit the crossbar in the first half but early in the second a third led to a headed goal and although we’d had other chances to score during the first forty-five it was West Brom who played the better football and looked most like getting a second in the rest of the match. Three or four great saves from man-of-the-match Richard Lee earned us a good point.

As most of us had no doubt expected a mauling after Wednesday, relief was probably the dominant feeling among the travelling Yellow Army and with Bristol City and Hull drawing in their games too, Stoke were the only top five side to get three points and they are top again. Watford remain in fifth and likely to enter the play-offs.

We met Jun and, due to a rail replacement service, caught a couple of buses to Bedworth via Coventry, where Brian and mum picked us up after eleven. Cups of tea and trifle finished off the day, but not before “Nanny and Grandad” received the Xmas presents we’ve been holding for more than a hundred days. Sunday we spent some time in the garden and went bowling, where the younger Watford Boy won two of the games before we trained it back home.

Who will be next year’s April Fools?

If you want an early punt on who will be bottom of the Premiership in a year’s time, look no further than the winners of the Championship Play-Off Final on Saturday 24^th May at Wembley.

In the Premiership, Derby’s failure to beat Fulham coupled with Birmingham’s win meant the Rams become the first team to be relegated from the Premiership before April Fool’s Day and they look likely to record the worst points total ever. Meanwhile, in the Championship, five teams are vying for the two guaranteed promotion places with the potential misery of the play-offs for those who don’t go up automatically.

It may be heartbreaking to see dreams of promotion dashed in the play-offs, but for the play-off winners, it looks increasingly like the trophy won at the single most lucrative game in world football is no more than a chalice coated with a slow-working poison (it took ten months for its effects to ‘kill’ Derby’s dreams though some bookies were paying out on them for relegation in September last year, a mere four months after promotion).

Four of the last five play-off winners went straight back down (in reverse order: Derby (2008), Watford (2007), Crystal Palace (2005), Wolverhampton Wanderers (2004)) and for Wolves and Palace (it’s too early to call on the others) neither parachute payments nor the experience of playing in the Premier League were sufficient to facilitate a second, more successful promotion.

Who are in the running to be next year’s Derby? Three of the following five teams will almost certainly be in the play-offs with the other two going straight up: West Bromwich Albion, Bristol City, Stoke, Hull and Watford. The other play-off place will probably go to either Wolves or Ipswich.

Before I go any further I should emphasise the unpredictable nature of the league: no one team is dominating it and bottom has beaten top on more than one occasion in 2007/8. However, since November the Baggies, the best footballing team in the Championship, have looked most deserving to top the division and their goal difference makes this outcome even more likely. Indeed, West Brom, three points off first place with a game in hand on the other teams, and despite having four of their remaining six games away, including a tricky visit to the Molineux in two weeks’ time, should finish champions.

As things stand, Bristol City are in line to be the other automatically promoted team, a fantastic feat for the club promoted from League One at the end of last season. Nevertheless, whether through the play-offs or not, survival in the Premiership will be too much too soon for Gary Johnson’s side and immediate relegation beckons should they hold their nerve in a run up which includes a visit to second-placed Stoke and a home game with Wolves.

Stoke City won five games in a row in February, storming to the top of the division, but have only won once in seven matches since and seem to have peaked too soon for automatic promotion. They have arguably the easiest run-in of the top seven, with only one match against any of their immediate rivals and that at home, but they do not have the momentum to stay in the top two.

In stark contrast, Hull City are the Championship’s form team, with wins at Plymouth and West Brom in February and five victories in March, including a convincing 3-0 defeat of promotion rivals Watford at the KC Stadium. With the second best goal difference in the league, the Tigers should feel confident that if the teams above them slip up, they have what it takes to win automatic promotion.

Watford make up the fifth team in the running. Very briefly twelve points clear in November, the Hornets play four of their remaining six games at Vicarage Road. Their home record, however, is so poor that even twenty-first placed Barnsley have more home points. Despite all of the early running, the Hornets, who seem unable to score from open play since talisman Marlon King left, look doomed to the play-offs.

Ipswich have the best home record in the league, which has kept them just off the top pack, while Wolves’ late push for the play-offs is partly due to the inability of other teams to string wins together. Perhaps the meeting between the two will decide who has the extra games at the end of the season.

In summary, though, it is the unpredictability of the league that makes it so exciting and will keep fans on the edge of their seats till the final day. Judging by the season as a whole, it is not only the matches between the top teams that will matter. Cardiff, Coventry or Crystal Palace, each of whom plays three of these top teams, could yet decide who makes the top two.

Would you want to be next year’s Derby? Most fans would still rather have a year in the top league than failure at the last hurdle and the Championship for another year. I am with the Derby fans: there were more than thirty three thousand people at Pride Park watching two likely-relegated teams play. Loyalty may not be reciprocated by results but that is football.

Bristol City, Stoke City, Hull City and Watford are middling clubs who are punching slightly above their weight. Real fans will be happy about that even if they may also want more...What fan doesn't want more? More goals, more points, more clean sheets, more passing, more inspired substitutions, more tackles, more great signings…Hope is the fans’ life. However, if their team goes up, hope may be their only lifeline.