Four out of three

After a gripping 2-2 home draw with seventeenth-placed Colchester closely followed last week’s lame 3-0 drubbing by West Brom at Vicarage Road, there are some among Watford’s Yellow Army who are losing the faith. Not least because we beat Norwich convincingly at Carrow Road midweek and had 26 goal attempts against the U’s, I am still part of the Watford faithful.

The Hornets have won eleven of sixteen games and are eight points clear of second-placed Charlton at the top of the Championship, though West Brom can close the gap to six points on Monday if they win at Coventry. It’s a great start for the club that was relegated bottom of the Premiership in May, six points below nineteenth-placed Charlton and eleven points from safety. At first sight, the current position seems even more impressive given the sale of Ashley Young and Hameur Bouazza, two players who emerged through the youth-team and scored almost a third of the Hornet’s goals in the top flight.

Scratch those facts though and you see that those two players only scored eight goals between them (Young left in January) and the team managed only 28, one fewer than they have so far in the second tier. This season is already a different prospect: Darius Henderson and Marlon King have each scored nine and Adam Johnson, on loan from Middlesbrough, is on five. Current rates would see both players score more than they did when we won promotion two years ago. The year in the Premiership, most of which “the King of Vicarage Road” missed through injury, leaving “Doris” playing in an unfamiliar role, can partly be dismissed as part of the learning curve that Watford are on.

Watford’s early success comes despite the repeated assertion by the manager – Aidy “Betty” Boothroyd – that the team is not playing well and that there is better to come. That may just be a psychological tactic but there are not many who would claim Watford are artists of the beautiful game. “Three nil to the football team,” Baggies’ fans taunted last week and there was a poverty of imagination from the Golden Boys in that game. Going two goals down in a two-minute spell is not explanation enough; Watford have played the long ball, the percentage game, even when they didn’t need to. There are glimpses of better but it might not be until Gareth Williams and Damien Francis come back from injury that the midfield can hope to be significantly more confident in the passing game.

Before I go on to the hypothetical, perhaps I should justify my faith. Some Watford fans allow themselves to be haunted by memories of 2000/1, when Watford briefly topped the table ahead of the competition (Fulham) at about this stage of the season before a thrashing at Craven Cottage saw the Hertfordshire club limp to a 9^th placed finish. Betty and others have stated that it is far too early to be looking at this season’s table but is that true? Can history tell us anything other than the fact that seven years Watford drifted into the sort of oblivion that Cardiff managed last season? Top after 16 games with 33 points, the Bluebirds finished 13^th on 64 points, thereby managing the rare feat of winning more points in the first third of the season than in the following two-thirds added together.

Yes. History can tell us that last season was a real blip. After sixteen games, eventual champions Sunderland were in 17^th position and neither of the other promoted sides was in the top three. In each of the previous four seasons, at least one of the automatically promoted teams was in a top two position at this point (Both Reading and Sheffield United in 2005/6, Wigan (eventually second) were top with 36 points after 16 games in 2004/5, WBA second after 16 and second at the end of 2003/4, Portsmouth and Leicester top and second (as they would finish) at this point of 2002/3. At least one of Watford, West Brom or Charlton are statistically likely to be automatically promoted. Many fans predicted that in August, though. Then again, they would probably have suggested Sheffield United would be in the mix too. Unless they “do a Sunderland”, the best they can hope for is the play-offs, like all but the bottom five clubs.

The table is far from irrelevant, whatever anyone tries to say. Tables do not lie any more after sixteen games than they do after forty six; they simply incorporate less information. Tables speak stats and matches speak stories: Watford players are disappointed with draws while their opponents are over the proverbial natural satellite. That is because Watford are top, and top they will stay for the rest of this year, though perhaps not the rest of the season. As well as the goal scorers, they have the team ethic necessary to navigate the Championship steeplechase.

There will be a wobble. There has to be, and some seem to think we are already feeling it. They may be right but with the international break upon us, it will be some time before we see whether that is the case. Betty has brought the team out of the other two breaks with back-to-back wins and there is no reason why Barnsley away and Burnley at home should not be games Watford can win, especially since their form away is now better than at home.

Watford can probably afford to lose two more games before Christmas and still be top when they travel to Southampton on New Year’s Day 2008. Bristol City, second for a handful of matches, can now be written out of the top two positions, especially since they travel to Vicarage Road and The Hawthorns in December. WBA also host Charlton and Wolves within the next five weeks. If they take maximum points from these three home games, they are likely to open up a gap over the third place team and could perhaps even steal pole position. For that to happen, though, their away record will have to improve.

I predict that Watford will be top of the Championship on December 31^st 2007. With the loss of ‘Boro on-loan wonder-kid Johnson and a defensive gap created by Danny Shittu going to the African Cup, the opening of the transfer window in January will be crucial to all of the teams looking for promotion and perhaps even for their subsequent possibility of surviving in the Premiership. Even the automatically-promoted teams will need to have better players and better teams than they have now. However, it is not just a question of buying in players that make the team stronger (rather than just boosting the squad) but also the capacity to avoid being raided by more-moneyed Premiership clubs when those windows open.

Aidy Boothroyd has proved he has what it takes to motivate his players. Some doubt his ability in the transfer market and it seems that the majority of those bought and brought into the squad in January 2007 have been superfluous to the team’s requirements. The summer splash brought in Jobi McAnuff from Crystal Palace and Nathan Ellington from WBA but these two players have yet to justify their transfer fees. The competition for places created by their purchase, though, may be a part of the motivation for the 23 goals scored by the players keeping them out of the team.

I have faith. Come and check it again in January.

Three out of Four

After a gripping 2-2 home draw with seventeenth-placed Colchester closely followed last week’s lame 3-0 drubbing by West Brom at Vicarage Road, there are some among Watford’s Yellow Army who are losing the faith. Not least because we beat Norwich convincingly at Carrow Road midweek and had 26 goal attempts against the U’s, I am still part of the Watford faithful.

The Hornets have won eleven of sixteen games and are eight points clear of second-placed Charlton at the top of the Championship, though West Brom can close the gap to six points on Monday if they win at Coventry. It’s a great start for the club that was relegated bottom of the Premiership in May, six points below nineteenth-placed Charlton and eleven points from safety. At first sight, the current position seems even more impressive given the sale of Ashley Young and Hameur Bouazza, two players who emerged through the youth-team and scored almost a third of the Hornet’s goals in the top flight.

Scratch those facts though and you see that those two players only scored eight goals between them (Young left in January) and the team managed only 28, one fewer than they have so far in the second tier. This season is already a different prospect: Darius Henderson and Marlon King have each scored nine and Adam Johnson, on loan from Middlesbrough, is on five. Current rates would see both players score more than they did when we won promotion two years ago. The year in the Premiership, most of which “the King of Vicarage Road” missed through injury, leaving “Doris” playing in an unfamiliar role, can partly be dismissed as part of the learning curve that Watford are on.

Watford’s early success comes despite the repeated assertion by the manager – Aidy “Betty” Boothroyd – that the team is not playing well and that there is better to come. That may just be a psychological tactic but there are not many who would claim Watford are artists of the beautiful game. “Three nil to the football team,” Baggies’ fans taunted last week and there was a poverty of imagination from the Golden Boys in that game. Going two goals down in a two-minute spell is not explanation enough; Watford have played the long ball, the percentage game, even when they didn’t need to. There are glimpses of better but it might not be until Gareth Williams and Damien Francis come back from injury that the midfield can hope to be significantly more confident in the passing game.

Before I go on to the hypothetical, perhaps I should justify my faith. Some Watford fans allow themselves to be haunted by memories of 2000/1, when Watford briefly topped the table ahead of the competition (Fulham) at about this stage of the season before a thrashing at Craven Cottage saw the Hertfordshire club limp to a 9^th placed finish. Betty and others have stated that it is far too early to be looking at this season’s table but is that true? Can history tell us anything other than the fact that seven years Watford drifted into the sort of oblivion that Cardiff managed last season? Top after 16 games with 33 points, the Blues finished 13^th on 64 points, thereby managing the rare feat of winning more points in the first third of the season than in the following two-thirds added together.

Yes. History can tell us that last season was a real blip. After sixteen games, eventual champions Sunderland were in 17^th position and neither of the other promoted sides was in the top three. In each of the previous four seasons, at least one of the automatically promoted teams was in a top two position at this point (Both Reading and Sheffield United in 2005/6, Wigan (eventually second) were top with 36 points after 16 games in 2004/5, WBA second after 16 and second at the end of 2003/4, Portsmouth and Leicester top and second (as they would finish) at this point of 2002/3. At least one of Watford, West Brom or Charlton are statistically likely to be automatically promoted. Many fans predicted that in August, though. Then again, they would probably have suggested Sheffield United would be in the mix too. Unless they “do a Sunderland”, the best they can hope for is the play-offs, like all but the bottom five clubs.

The table is far from irrelevant, whatever anyone tries to say. Tables do not lie any more after sixteen games than they do after forty six; they simply incorporate less information. Tables speak stats and matches speak stories: Watford players are disappointed with draws while their opponents are over the proverbial natural satellite. That is because Watford are top, and top they will stay for the rest of this year, though perhaps not the rest of the season. As well as the goal scorers, they have the team ethic necessary to navigate the Championship steeplechase.

There will be a wobble. There has to be, and some seem to think we are already feeling it. They may be right but with the international break upon us, it will be some time before we see whether that is the case. Betty has brought the team out of the other two breaks with back-to-back wins and there is no reason why Barnsley away and Burnley at home should not be games Watford can win, especially since their form away is now better than at home.

Watford can probably afford to lose two more games before Christmas and still be top when they travel to Southampton on New Year’s Day 2008. Bristol City, second for a handful of matches, can now be written out of the top two positions, especially since they travel to Vicarage Road and The Hawthorns in December. WBA also host Charlton and Wolves within the next five weeks. If they take maximum points from these three home games, they are likely to open up a gap over the third place team and could perhaps even steal pole position. For that to happen, though, their away record will have to improve.

I predict that Watford will be top of the Championship on December 31^st 2007. With the loss of ‘Boro on-loan wonder-kid Johnson and a defensive gap created by Danny Shittu going to the African Cup, the opening of the transfer window in January will be crucial to all of the teams looking for promotion and perhaps even for their subsequent possibility of surviving in the Premiership. Even the automatically-promoted teams will need to have better players and better teams than they have now. However, it is not just a question of buying in players that make the team stronger (rather than just boosting the squad) but also the capacity to avoid being raided by more-moneyed Premiership clubs when those windows open.

Aidy Boothroyd has proved he has what it takes to motivate his players. Some doubt his ability in the transfer market and it seems that the majority of those bought and brought into the squad in January 2007 have been superfluous to the team’s requirements. The summer splash brought in Jobi McAnuff from Crystal Palace and Nathan Ellington from WBA but these two players have yet to justify their transfer fees. The competition for places created by their purchase, though, may be a part of the motivation for the 23 goals scored by the players keeping them out of the team.

I have faith. Come and check it again in January.

Champions

Watford v Newcastle United

13^th May 2007

It might have been the wrong sort of rain that delayed the train to Watford but I had to call Joss and tell him to leave and meet me at the Vic; Phil gave him a lift to the top of Harwoods Road and we met on the corner near the Red Lion, where I watched part of the Toon Army braving the rain topless in Hawaiian shorts. After locking up we got in too late to see the nurses lead the footballers out. I’d seen Noreena Hertz on the BBC News this morning and she’d mentioned that her campaign had the backing of more than 250 Premiership footballers, a fantastic success.

We took our seats for the last time this season and perhaps ever (Joss would like to sit higher up next year and I agree, though the atmosphere at the front is far better than in the middle). We sang “Yellow Army” and “Owen’s going home” (after Freddy Shepherd’s comments this week) and the Golden Boys, when they weren’t slipping over, had the better of the play. Will Hoskins, Douglas Rinaldi and Marlon King all got themselves into promising positions but failed to test their keeper, Shay Given.

Typically, Newcastle scored with their first on-target shot of their match as Kieron Dyer slotted past the onrushing Ben Foster, in his last game for us, after Jordan Stewart failed to cut out a through ball. The Newcastle fans in the Vicarage Road end didn’t seem that loud in celebration but maybe it’s because their singing before that had been so impassioned.

We went in at half-time a goal down and the best news of the day came when our girls’ team were paraded as champions of their league after a 12-0 victory. The Premiership title was decided in ManU’s™ favour last weekend (when Chelsea could only draw at Arsenal) and Charlton’s fight against the inevitable was over by Monday evening, so the real question today was who the third team to go down would be. After 45 minutes, West Ham were winning at ManU™ and Wigan were 2-1 up at Brammall Lane, meaning their hosts, Sheffield United, would go down if the scores all stayed the same.

Ten minutes after we’d eaten our half-time bananas, Lee Williamson unleashed a sweet half-volley that went just wide. A minute or two later, Adrian Mariappa came down the right and crossed. Newcastle’s Nicky Butt stuck out a hand and Watford had a penalty, our third of the season. It was Marlon King who stepped up to take it and slot it into the bottom left-hand corner to give us a one hundred percent conversion rate and him his fourth goal of the season, a tally second only to Hameur Bouazza’s, who has been given compassionate leave.

We had plenty more chances in the second half but they were just about all off target. Michael Owen was stretchered off with what was later diagnosed as mild concussion. My “Owen’s carried home” song was met by a “Shut up, mate” from the guy directly in front. “Fuck off” I replied sweetly. The whole ‘making friends with other fans’ thing never really took off. Theo Robinson came on to make his premiership debut (cue puzzled looks) and then, in the ninetieth minute, “England’s number one” was substituted and serenaded and Alec Chamberlain came on to play what was his last game for us too.

We deserved more than Newcastle from the game but a draw was not unfair. As the team took its bows and did half a lap of honour that didn’t really include the Rookery (much to the annoyance of some around us), we could reflect on a season that saw us do far better than when we were last up (1999-2000) but still not well enough by at least ten points. The half-time scores in the games that affected the relegation battle did not change and Sheffield United come straight back down with us.

“We’ll be back as Champions,” we’d sung as the manager, who signed a new, improved contract at the beginning of the week, thanked us for our support. Who will we lose, though? Danny Shittu has made noises and Hameur Bouazza could be too good to stay. Perhaps even Marlon King will be in demand. I don’t think we’ll have it as bad as the Blades or Charlton, but it’s unlikely to be the same Golden Boys next season. If it’s not promotion next year, there’s always the girls’ team.

That’s why we’re going down

Watford v Manchester City

Saturday 21^st April

Joss and I got in after kick-off again and I greeted the father and son immediately behind us who I’ve chatted with over the last couple of home games. Earlier in the season I pledged to make an effort with fans but have to report one home game away from the end of our Premiership campaign that I have not lived up to that. Although Joss and I started clapping and shouting immediately that we sat down, there was not much of an atmosphere today and I didn’t feel too motivated to take the lead in creating one until the second half.

The first half was poor: the City fans were louder but the game was mediocre. Our best chance came as Damien Francis pulled up injured and until we realised he had to go off we were disappointed that nothing had come of it. City didn’t seem too dangerous but neither did the Golden Boys. Marlon King started for the first time since October but unfortunately that showed, especially with a header in front of us that he directed yards wide.

Nil-nil at half time was a fair representation of a game lacking in most things that get fans involved but I resolved to shout throughout the second half and try to help create a twelfth man. I wasn’t alone. “Aidy Boothroyd’s Yellow Army” is a song that fits well with the “join in” ethos of the club and I led and led and led. However, less than ten minutes after the restart, Ben Foster moved forward to deal with a back pass and disaster. What looked to me like a failure to make a clear decision about whether to whack the ball or pass it to the left-back culminated in a tap into the path of Darius Vassell, who was able to pass into a semi-empty net. Foster, who’d been booed throughout the first half by the visiting fans (he’s a United player on loan to us, remember) suddenly found himself the object of “England’s number one” chants from the fans in blue. Ouch.

The fans, who are used to such adversity, responded to our falling behind by finally getting behind the team. In the absence of Curly (I’d already taken on the ideas behind some of his more abusive shouts) the usual suspects in front of us to our left (who are part of the “front row crew”) led some chants including “The football league is upside down”, which I haven’t heard for a while. I never tried my “land of harts and hornets” number, but contented myself with shouting along to “Yellow Army” etc. It took twenty minutes but a Douglas Rinaldi pass allowed Tamas Priskin to knock in his second goal of the season (2 in the last 4 games) and that only boosted the twelfth man. Unfortunately, that was not enough and another King headed miss meant it finished even and ended any hopes the most optimistic of the followers might have had. Championship football for us from August.

We clapped the players off (I wondered who, including the manager, we’d lose in the summer and think Hameur Bouazza and Danny Shittu (as well as Foster) are the most likely to be objects of transfer interest) and walked back a circuitous route because the police had cordoned off the bottom of Cardiff Road for some reason. Back at Kerry’s, Joss and I did some Spanish, played chess, connect 4 and air hockey and then I spent some time with my sister and her boyfriend. I’ve committed myself to another season ticket. More goals and more victories next season are assured, aren’t they?

Hasta luego

Watford v Wigan Athletic

Wednesday 21^st February

This has been the one. While the West Ham away match felt like it wouldn’t matter even if we won, it will if part of a run that includes victory today and against Charlton. I’ve had a strange feeling over the last few days, though, which evokes the Sheffield United defeat. Perhaps it’s the hope of an important victory. Maybe it will even become a good feeling. Back when the game was abandoned it felt like an important one to win, one we were going to win, but not like a six-pointer. Feel the power of that promise; I do.

Kerry walked Joss down and then took Dex around the stadium and home. We met, locked up and could hear Marlon King encouraging the fans to get behind the team and as soon as we got to our seats, a few minutes into the match, we started to give it our all. Joss mentioned beforehand that his head was alright and he shouted as much today as ever (he’s been quieter the last two matches). Wigan were good but I thought we looked like we wanted it more and when one of their players. Fitz Hall, got sent off for a two-footed tackle on Johan Cavalli after just 20 minutes, I was sure the six points were ours.

Doris Henderson poached one four minutes later to make it 1-0 and it was the icing on the rising cake. Hendo doubles his season’s tally in this match. When it matters. “Going down with the Charlton.” We joyously taunted. Then ten men broke through and Ben Foster made a fantastic double save that involved a challenge which left him injured and in need of attention. No keeper on the bench. “England’s number one” can’t walk properly or kick the ball. Adrian Mariappa takes three goal-kicks and something changes. Wigan break through again and Caleb Folan puts himself through and scores a good goal.

Something had changed. We were standing off, not passing well, not taking advantage of numbers but a few fans react too harshly. You can’t half-time-boo them at 1-1 against Wigan. Let’s get some sense of perspective. Anyway, as on Saturday, Hamuer Bouazza came on for Cavalli at half-time but didn’t produce anything telling. Hendo had a couple of good efforts go just over but they threatened too and a draw was fair. That’s why we’re going down…can’t beat 10 man-Wigan at home.

We did a little Spanish on the cycle ride home and went over stuff before he went to bed. Joss is clearly keen to be able to express himself in the language but hasn’t shown any enthusiasm for learning lists of words. So, we are practising questions and answers at the moment and his pronunciation is still improving. Not that mine is great but…Joss intende ensenar a Kerry un poco el espanol. I’ll have that checked before anyone reads it…