Four out of three

After a gripping 2-2 home draw with seventeenth-placed Colchester closely followed last week’s lame 3-0 drubbing by West Brom at Vicarage Road, there are some among Watford’s Yellow Army who are losing the faith. Not least because we beat Norwich convincingly at Carrow Road midweek and had 26 goal attempts against the U’s, I am still part of the Watford faithful.

The Hornets have won eleven of sixteen games and are eight points clear of second-placed Charlton at the top of the Championship, though West Brom can close the gap to six points on Monday if they win at Coventry. It’s a great start for the club that was relegated bottom of the Premiership in May, six points below nineteenth-placed Charlton and eleven points from safety. At first sight, the current position seems even more impressive given the sale of Ashley Young and Hameur Bouazza, two players who emerged through the youth-team and scored almost a third of the Hornet’s goals in the top flight.

Scratch those facts though and you see that those two players only scored eight goals between them (Young left in January) and the team managed only 28, one fewer than they have so far in the second tier. This season is already a different prospect: Darius Henderson and Marlon King have each scored nine and Adam Johnson, on loan from Middlesbrough, is on five. Current rates would see both players score more than they did when we won promotion two years ago. The year in the Premiership, most of which “the King of Vicarage Road” missed through injury, leaving “Doris” playing in an unfamiliar role, can partly be dismissed as part of the learning curve that Watford are on.

Watford’s early success comes despite the repeated assertion by the manager – Aidy “Betty” Boothroyd – that the team is not playing well and that there is better to come. That may just be a psychological tactic but there are not many who would claim Watford are artists of the beautiful game. “Three nil to the football team,” Baggies’ fans taunted last week and there was a poverty of imagination from the Golden Boys in that game. Going two goals down in a two-minute spell is not explanation enough; Watford have played the long ball, the percentage game, even when they didn’t need to. There are glimpses of better but it might not be until Gareth Williams and Damien Francis come back from injury that the midfield can hope to be significantly more confident in the passing game.

Before I go on to the hypothetical, perhaps I should justify my faith. Some Watford fans allow themselves to be haunted by memories of 2000/1, when Watford briefly topped the table ahead of the competition (Fulham) at about this stage of the season before a thrashing at Craven Cottage saw the Hertfordshire club limp to a 9^th placed finish. Betty and others have stated that it is far too early to be looking at this season’s table but is that true? Can history tell us anything other than the fact that seven years Watford drifted into the sort of oblivion that Cardiff managed last season? Top after 16 games with 33 points, the Bluebirds finished 13^th on 64 points, thereby managing the rare feat of winning more points in the first third of the season than in the following two-thirds added together.

Yes. History can tell us that last season was a real blip. After sixteen games, eventual champions Sunderland were in 17^th position and neither of the other promoted sides was in the top three. In each of the previous four seasons, at least one of the automatically promoted teams was in a top two position at this point (Both Reading and Sheffield United in 2005/6, Wigan (eventually second) were top with 36 points after 16 games in 2004/5, WBA second after 16 and second at the end of 2003/4, Portsmouth and Leicester top and second (as they would finish) at this point of 2002/3. At least one of Watford, West Brom or Charlton are statistically likely to be automatically promoted. Many fans predicted that in August, though. Then again, they would probably have suggested Sheffield United would be in the mix too. Unless they “do a Sunderland”, the best they can hope for is the play-offs, like all but the bottom five clubs.

The table is far from irrelevant, whatever anyone tries to say. Tables do not lie any more after sixteen games than they do after forty six; they simply incorporate less information. Tables speak stats and matches speak stories: Watford players are disappointed with draws while their opponents are over the proverbial natural satellite. That is because Watford are top, and top they will stay for the rest of this year, though perhaps not the rest of the season. As well as the goal scorers, they have the team ethic necessary to navigate the Championship steeplechase.

There will be a wobble. There has to be, and some seem to think we are already feeling it. They may be right but with the international break upon us, it will be some time before we see whether that is the case. Betty has brought the team out of the other two breaks with back-to-back wins and there is no reason why Barnsley away and Burnley at home should not be games Watford can win, especially since their form away is now better than at home.

Watford can probably afford to lose two more games before Christmas and still be top when they travel to Southampton on New Year’s Day 2008. Bristol City, second for a handful of matches, can now be written out of the top two positions, especially since they travel to Vicarage Road and The Hawthorns in December. WBA also host Charlton and Wolves within the next five weeks. If they take maximum points from these three home games, they are likely to open up a gap over the third place team and could perhaps even steal pole position. For that to happen, though, their away record will have to improve.

I predict that Watford will be top of the Championship on December 31^st 2007. With the loss of ‘Boro on-loan wonder-kid Johnson and a defensive gap created by Danny Shittu going to the African Cup, the opening of the transfer window in January will be crucial to all of the teams looking for promotion and perhaps even for their subsequent possibility of surviving in the Premiership. Even the automatically-promoted teams will need to have better players and better teams than they have now. However, it is not just a question of buying in players that make the team stronger (rather than just boosting the squad) but also the capacity to avoid being raided by more-moneyed Premiership clubs when those windows open.

Aidy Boothroyd has proved he has what it takes to motivate his players. Some doubt his ability in the transfer market and it seems that the majority of those bought and brought into the squad in January 2007 have been superfluous to the team’s requirements. The summer splash brought in Jobi McAnuff from Crystal Palace and Nathan Ellington from WBA but these two players have yet to justify their transfer fees. The competition for places created by their purchase, though, may be a part of the motivation for the 23 goals scored by the players keeping them out of the team.

I have faith. Come and check it again in January.

Three out of Four

After a gripping 2-2 home draw with seventeenth-placed Colchester closely followed last week’s lame 3-0 drubbing by West Brom at Vicarage Road, there are some among Watford’s Yellow Army who are losing the faith. Not least because we beat Norwich convincingly at Carrow Road midweek and had 26 goal attempts against the U’s, I am still part of the Watford faithful.

The Hornets have won eleven of sixteen games and are eight points clear of second-placed Charlton at the top of the Championship, though West Brom can close the gap to six points on Monday if they win at Coventry. It’s a great start for the club that was relegated bottom of the Premiership in May, six points below nineteenth-placed Charlton and eleven points from safety. At first sight, the current position seems even more impressive given the sale of Ashley Young and Hameur Bouazza, two players who emerged through the youth-team and scored almost a third of the Hornet’s goals in the top flight.

Scratch those facts though and you see that those two players only scored eight goals between them (Young left in January) and the team managed only 28, one fewer than they have so far in the second tier. This season is already a different prospect: Darius Henderson and Marlon King have each scored nine and Adam Johnson, on loan from Middlesbrough, is on five. Current rates would see both players score more than they did when we won promotion two years ago. The year in the Premiership, most of which “the King of Vicarage Road” missed through injury, leaving “Doris” playing in an unfamiliar role, can partly be dismissed as part of the learning curve that Watford are on.

Watford’s early success comes despite the repeated assertion by the manager – Aidy “Betty” Boothroyd – that the team is not playing well and that there is better to come. That may just be a psychological tactic but there are not many who would claim Watford are artists of the beautiful game. “Three nil to the football team,” Baggies’ fans taunted last week and there was a poverty of imagination from the Golden Boys in that game. Going two goals down in a two-minute spell is not explanation enough; Watford have played the long ball, the percentage game, even when they didn’t need to. There are glimpses of better but it might not be until Gareth Williams and Damien Francis come back from injury that the midfield can hope to be significantly more confident in the passing game.

Before I go on to the hypothetical, perhaps I should justify my faith. Some Watford fans allow themselves to be haunted by memories of 2000/1, when Watford briefly topped the table ahead of the competition (Fulham) at about this stage of the season before a thrashing at Craven Cottage saw the Hertfordshire club limp to a 9^th placed finish. Betty and others have stated that it is far too early to be looking at this season’s table but is that true? Can history tell us anything other than the fact that seven years Watford drifted into the sort of oblivion that Cardiff managed last season? Top after 16 games with 33 points, the Blues finished 13^th on 64 points, thereby managing the rare feat of winning more points in the first third of the season than in the following two-thirds added together.

Yes. History can tell us that last season was a real blip. After sixteen games, eventual champions Sunderland were in 17^th position and neither of the other promoted sides was in the top three. In each of the previous four seasons, at least one of the automatically promoted teams was in a top two position at this point (Both Reading and Sheffield United in 2005/6, Wigan (eventually second) were top with 36 points after 16 games in 2004/5, WBA second after 16 and second at the end of 2003/4, Portsmouth and Leicester top and second (as they would finish) at this point of 2002/3. At least one of Watford, West Brom or Charlton are statistically likely to be automatically promoted. Many fans predicted that in August, though. Then again, they would probably have suggested Sheffield United would be in the mix too. Unless they “do a Sunderland”, the best they can hope for is the play-offs, like all but the bottom five clubs.

The table is far from irrelevant, whatever anyone tries to say. Tables do not lie any more after sixteen games than they do after forty six; they simply incorporate less information. Tables speak stats and matches speak stories: Watford players are disappointed with draws while their opponents are over the proverbial natural satellite. That is because Watford are top, and top they will stay for the rest of this year, though perhaps not the rest of the season. As well as the goal scorers, they have the team ethic necessary to navigate the Championship steeplechase.

There will be a wobble. There has to be, and some seem to think we are already feeling it. They may be right but with the international break upon us, it will be some time before we see whether that is the case. Betty has brought the team out of the other two breaks with back-to-back wins and there is no reason why Barnsley away and Burnley at home should not be games Watford can win, especially since their form away is now better than at home.

Watford can probably afford to lose two more games before Christmas and still be top when they travel to Southampton on New Year’s Day 2008. Bristol City, second for a handful of matches, can now be written out of the top two positions, especially since they travel to Vicarage Road and The Hawthorns in December. WBA also host Charlton and Wolves within the next five weeks. If they take maximum points from these three home games, they are likely to open up a gap over the third place team and could perhaps even steal pole position. For that to happen, though, their away record will have to improve.

I predict that Watford will be top of the Championship on December 31^st 2007. With the loss of ‘Boro on-loan wonder-kid Johnson and a defensive gap created by Danny Shittu going to the African Cup, the opening of the transfer window in January will be crucial to all of the teams looking for promotion and perhaps even for their subsequent possibility of surviving in the Premiership. Even the automatically-promoted teams will need to have better players and better teams than they have now. However, it is not just a question of buying in players that make the team stronger (rather than just boosting the squad) but also the capacity to avoid being raided by more-moneyed Premiership clubs when those windows open.

Aidy Boothroyd has proved he has what it takes to motivate his players. Some doubt his ability in the transfer market and it seems that the majority of those bought and brought into the squad in January 2007 have been superfluous to the team’s requirements. The summer splash brought in Jobi McAnuff from Crystal Palace and Nathan Ellington from WBA but these two players have yet to justify their transfer fees. The competition for places created by their purchase, though, may be a part of the motivation for the 23 goals scored by the players keeping them out of the team.

I have faith. Come and check it again in January.