The Nobel Prize winning Danish physicist Niels Bohr famously stated “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future”. I cannot better that, but would like to add that it is made that little more difficult by inconsistency in the elements that you are basing that prediction on.
Sportingo writer Donna Gee was a little hard on herself in claiming that she had been foolish with her assertion that the Championship was the most competitive league in Europe (shortly before seeing Newcastle and West Bromwich Albion begin to run away with things at the top, much in the manner of the boring Chelsea and Manchester United domination of the Premiership).
With her beloved Cardiff beating West Brom at the the Hawthorns yesterday (shortly after a run of one point in four matches had ended), they are back up to third just three days after she was bemoaning them dropping out of the play-off positions. Meanwhile, Leicester, who had suffered only one defeat in ten games to see them enter December in third place, lost two on the trot to immediate rivals, conceding eight goals in the process and dropping to seventh.
It seems clear that the best prediction concerning the play-off positions of the Championship (at this stage at least) is that it will remain unpredictable. Indeed, the only element at the top of the table with a degree of consistency is Newcastle´s home record. They are not too poor away, either, and I would not be surprised to see them dominate this league the same way Wigan and Reading did when they were Champions.
Although West Brom are a good footballing side, three defeats at home already this season indicates that they are not going to maintain a steady challenge to the Magpies. They might well end up second, but I reckon there will be fewer points between them and third than there are between them and Newcastle.
Hmmm, this prediction lark is fun, isn´t it?
For further unpredictability, however, look no further than Middlesborough, who thrashed QPR 5-1 at Loftus Road on Saturday only to lose at home 3-0 to Blackpool days later, with the Tangerines just getting over their first home defeat of the season, and this by mid-table Barnsley.
QPR, like Leicester, also conceded eight goals in two defeats and have dropped to twelfth from fifth. So now Swansea and Nottingham Forest, who each took a mediocre four points from the last six, seem to be on the front foot, while a meagre one win in three matches has taken Blackpool back into the play-off places.
The pattern of unpredictability in the bigger picture can be broken down. Just about any team who goes on a good run of four or five games (let´s say winning ten or twelve points from them) will likely have a place in the play-off positions at the end of it.
Even Watford, who have consistently lost one match for each win since the end of September, briefly found themselves in a giddy sixth position after beating QPR 3-1 on Monday night. When your average point rate is less than one and a half per game (as the Hornets´ is since back to back wins in early September), you should not really find yourself moving upwards in the league.
Not, unless, this is indeed a competitive league where most teams have the potential to beat each other, precluding consistency and defying prediction.
Look at Reading, who appear to be withering away hopelessly in nineteenth position in the league until you realise that there are as many points (eleven) between them and sixth place as there are between sixth and top of the table. It may not seem any comfort for them at the moment, but that gap is bridgable, though whether Brendan Rogers is the man to provide the results to span it is another question.
I think Newcastle will take this league at a canter but as for the positions immediately below them, I think it is fair to assume that there will be lots more comings and goings yet. And if I am wrong? Donna, I hope you will stick up for me.
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