Six points to the Golden Boys

The Premiership “six-pointers” got off to a surprising start with Watford’s victory at West Ham. The majority of observers, even ex-Watford (and England) manager Graham Taylor, saw this “must-win” going the way of the home team but, despite the Hammer’s unprecedented spending in January, Watford recorded their first two away wins of the season in a two-week period at Upton Park’s Boleyn Ground. Before the F.A. Cup Fourth Round match, most of the Yellow Army fans were saying that they would prefer a win in the league a fortnight later. Aidy “Betty” Boothroyd (after the House of Commons speaker), Watford’s ever-optimistic manager, said he’d rather win both. Betty’s preference prevailed.

There had been much talk of the run of three games in which the bottom three play each other, but such talk omits the fourth club in the relegation battle, Wigan. Whilst there is no certainty that it will be three of the bottom four that go down, especially in the light of Manchester City’s freefall into sixteenth place, the statistics would indicate that it is the teams with fewer than thirty points at this point that are most likely to drop down into the Championship. Omitting Wigan from the equation surely limits the discussion to being solely about the positions in which the teams go down.

Position	Team	Pld	Pts	GD
17	Wigan	26	25	-16
18	West Ham	27	20	-24
19	Charlton	27	20	-27
20	Watford	26	18	-22

West Ham and Charlton’s next match is their meeting at the Valley, and Charlton visit Watford’s Vicarage Road stadium the following week, but if you factor in Wigan games, there are three more crucial matches in the dogfight at the bottom of the table.

Wed 21^st Feb Watford v Wigan

Sat 24^th Feb. Charlton v West Ham

Sat 3^rd March Watford v Charlton

Sat 31^st March Charlton v Wigan

Sat 28^th April West Ham v Wigan

Beyond these “six-pointers”, if you look at fixtures against the “Big Four”, West Ham must be deemed to have the most difficult run-in, with games at Arsenal and Man Utd and home to Chelsea, while Charlton and Wigan “only” have to travel to Anfield and the Hornets face Chelsea at home. In all probability, this means there are two fewer games for West Ham to expect anything from than there are for the other teams at the bottom.

Where would your money be? A further look at the bottom end of the table shows that all of the teams play Sheffield United but only Charlton have them at home. Charlton and Wigan go to the City of Manchester Stadium, while Watford play Man City at home. Can much be made of such permutations? Will Watford’s run of three league games at home straight after a home tie against Ipswich in the Fifth round of the FA Cup (and the win at Upton Park) give them an advantage? Is the Cup a distraction at this stage, allowing the other three teams precious time off to recuperate?

There is much to debate for those of us concerned with our teams at the bottom, but the financial stakes are so high, we cannot help but ponder. West Ham’s spending in January was said to have totalled £17.5 million, Charlton spent between £3–4 million, Wigan spent a net £2.8 million whereas Watford have probably made around an £8 million profit in the transfer window, with the sale of their England under-21 winger Ashley Young to Aston Villa.

Certainly, Watford’s dealings seemed like preparation for the Championship, but bringing in eight players has also added some depth to the squad and galvanised players in all positions to fight for their places. Which of these four teams manages to overhaul the others may be something we are able to wonder about until May 13^th, but with players such as Lucas Neill and Matthew Upson reputedly earning so much, West Ham seem to have the most to lose and therefore seem to be the least well-equipped to bounce back should they be relegated.

In 2004/5, West Bromwich Albion, who were bottom at Christmas with 10 points, ultimately survived with 34 points. The same number of points would also have ensured 17th place in 2003/4 and 35 would have sufficed last year. In 2002/3, though, 43 points were necessary to retain premiership status. In the eleven years that there have been 20 teams in England’s top league, an average of 37 points has been the survival default. Who knows what it will be this year, but you can be sure that the point-counting has begun. And every six points matters.