If you want an early punt on who will be bottom of the Premiership in a year’s time, look no further than the winners of the Championship Play-Off Final on Saturday 24th May at Wembley.
In the Premiership, Derby’s failure to beat Fulham coupled with Birmingham’s win meant the Rams become the first team to be relegated from the Premiership before April Fool’s Day and they look likely to record the worst points total ever. Meanwhile, in the Championship, five teams are vying for the two guaranteed promotion places with the potential misery of the play-offs for those who don’t go up automatically.
It may be heartbreaking to see dreams of promotion dashed in the play-offs, but for the play-off winners, it looks increasingly like the trophy won at the single most lucrative game in world football is no more than a chalice coated with a slow-working poison (it took ten months for its effects to ‘kill’ Derby’s dreams though some bookies were paying out on them for relegation in September last year, a mere four months after promotion).
Four of the last five play-off winners went straight back down (in reverse order: Derby (2008), Watford (2007), Crystal Palace (2005), Wolverhampton Wanderers (2004)) and for Wolves and Palace (it’s too early to call on the others) neither parachute payments nor the experience of playing in the Premier League were sufficient to facilitate a second, more successful promotion.
Who are in the running to be next year’s Derby? Three of the following five teams will almost certainly be in the play-offs with the other two going straight up: West Bromwich Albion, Bristol City, Stoke, Hull and Watford. The other play-off place will probably go to either Wolves or Ipswich.
Before I go any further I should emphasise the unpredictable nature of the league: no one team is dominating it and bottom has beaten top on more than one occasion in 2007/8. However, since November the Baggies, the best footballing team in the Championship, have looked most deserving to top the division and their goal difference makes this outcome even more likely. Indeed, West Brom, three points off first place with a game in hand on the other teams, and despite having four of their remaining six games away, including a tricky visit to the Molineux in two weeks’ time, should finish champions.
As things stand, Bristol City are in line to be the other automatically promoted team, a fantastic feat for the club promoted from League One at the end of last season. Nevertheless, whether through the play-offs or not, survival in the Premiership will be too much too soon for Gary Johnson’s side and immediate relegation beckons should they hold their nerve in a run up which includes a visit to second-placed Stoke and a home game with Wolves.
Stoke City won five games in a row in February, storming to the top of the division, but have only won once in seven matches since and seem to have peaked too soon for automatic promotion. They have arguably the easiest run-in of the top seven, with only one match against any of their immediate rivals and that at home, but they do not have the momentum to stay in the top two.
In stark contrast, Hull City are the Championship’s form team, with wins at Plymouth and West Brom in February and five victories in March, including a convincing 3-0 defeat of promotion rivals Watford at the KC Stadium. With the second best goal difference in the league, the Tigers should feel confident that if the teams above them slip up, they have what it takes to win automatic promotion.
Watford make up the fifth team in the running. Very briefly twelve points clear in November, the Hornets play four of their remaining six games at Vicarage Road. Their home record, however, is so poor that even twenty-first placed Barnsley have more home points. Despite all of the early running, the Hornets, who seem unable to score from open play since talisman Marlon King left, look doomed to the play-offs.
Ipswich have the best home record in the league, which has kept them just off the top pack, while Wolves’ late push for the play-offs is partly due to the inability of other teams to string wins together. Perhaps the meeting between the two will decide who has the extra games at the end of the season.
In summary, though, it is the unpredictability of the league that makes it so exciting and will keep fans on the edge of their seats till the final day. Judging by the season as a whole, it is not only the matches between the top teams that will matter. Cardiff, Coventry or Crystal Palace, each of whom plays three of these top teams, could yet decide who makes the top two.
Would you want to be next year’s Derby? Most fans would still rather have a year in the top league than failure at the last hurdle and the Championship for another year. I am with the Derby fans: there were more than thirty three thousand people at Pride Park watching two likely-relegated teams play. Loyalty may not be reciprocated by results but that is football.
Bristol City, Stoke City, Hull City and Watford are middling clubs who are punching slightly above their weight. Real fans will be happy about that even if they may also want more...What fan doesn't want more? More goals, more points, more clean sheets, more passing, more inspired substitutions, more tackles, more great signings…Hope is the fans’ life. However, if their team goes up, hope may be their only lifeline.
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